TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Heat, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,773 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe911…3d4ebacked Heat43c1,531$655 inLost-$655.371,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed Hornets55c1,010$560 inWon+$450.162343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Heat37c541.08$200 inLost-$200.211049.1%54 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b2b…d4d3backed Heat30c411.07$125 inLost-$125.133560%21 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets57c407.82$231 inWon+$177.255,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Hornets60c333.33$200 inWon+$133.3314745.6%67 W · 80 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Heat37c203.64$75 inLost-$74.5926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Hornets54c120$65 inWon+$55.290357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Hornets66c56.14$37 inWon+$19.093250%16 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c8…68d7backed Hornets55c55$30 inWon+$24.753951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hornets70c54.22$38 inWon+$16.331,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Hornets56c51.83$29 inWon+$22.7654549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Heat34c50$17 inLost-$1763555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0a…3a55backed Hornets67c45.37$30 inWon+$14.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Hornets67c17$11 inWon+$5.5439449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x584d…d358backed Hornets67c15.66$10 inWon+$5.177970.9%56 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.