Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46cc55524f54d2fc59e17f7d987e57585b806bfa27b0d52434396f30676907e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 72c | 968.42$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.55 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 918.46$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 847.12$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.43 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 630.61$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 35c | 302.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.13 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 289.69$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 262.21$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 222.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 28c | 217.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 215.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 209.86$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 208$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 207.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 54c | 203.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 201.9$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 179.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 167$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 10c | 159.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 159.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 151.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 148.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 134.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 131$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 41c | 122.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 117.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 79c | 116.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 111.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 46c | 111.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 109.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 50c | 105.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 100.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 89.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 88.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 59c | 87.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 86.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 48c | 83.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 60c | 83.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 42c | 81.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 81.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 80.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 62c | 80.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 70.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 40c | 70.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 70.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 38c | 68.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 52c | 68.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 66.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 40c | 65.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 42c | 65.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 60c | 61.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed No | 37c | 60.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 60c | 58.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 30c | 58.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 57.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 35c | 57.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 55.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 39c | 52.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 50.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 48.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdff…205cbacked Yes | 67c | 44.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 41c | 43.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 43.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 37c | 37.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 37.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…10edbacked Yes | 60c | 36.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 35.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 49c | 34.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 44c | 34.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 64c | 31.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 41c | 30.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 29.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…47abbacked No | 44c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 58c | 27.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 26.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 26.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 49c | 25.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…431cbacked Yes | 60c | 25.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 24.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 22.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.