Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x798081141594f9d4cc37aa7bd12278c9484ca2ad0180ce93ebc7e7bcfde63485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 856.14$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 802.78$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 45c | 348.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.83 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 43c | 284.76$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 34c | 251.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 243.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 242.89$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 241.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 38c | 235.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 208$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 200.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 194.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 41c | 184.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 182.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 65c | 148.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 34c | 145.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 144.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 134.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 35c | 132$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 131.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 127.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 115.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 115.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 108.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 41c | 107.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 61c | 106.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 103.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 44c | 102.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 40c | 101.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 56c | 101.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa138…7a9bbacked Yes | 41c | 95.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 91.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 39c | 88.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 45c | 87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 81.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 81.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 22c | 81.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 58c | 77.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 49c | 74.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 69.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 50c | 68.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 51c | 65.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 64.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 62.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 61.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 67c | 60.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 57.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 54c | 55.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 46c | 55.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 39c | 51.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 61c | 50.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 49.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 46.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 52c | 46.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 42c | 44.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…7a34backed No | 52c | 43.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 43.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 42.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 35c | 40.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 40.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 39.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 39.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 39.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 38.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 38.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 37.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 43c | 37.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 36.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 69c | 36.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 70c | 35.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 52c | 34.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 33.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 38c | 32.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…9e2abacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 31.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 52c | 31.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 54c | 29.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.