Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d7dc106ba0f640c3ee4ac612448f71494c562bcc8e2ac6512c44d700edcd1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,606$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,390$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 730.9$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 42c | 461.96$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.31 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 375.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 36c | 326.33$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.26 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 8c | 244.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 241.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 236.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 8c | 206$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 18c | 189.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 161.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 158.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 74c | 140.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 8c | 132.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 129.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 128.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 16c | 128.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 124.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 118.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 102$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 45c | 86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 83.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 83.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 69.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 63.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 54.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 50.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 26c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 44.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 42c | 42.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 70c | 42.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 69c | 42.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 41.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 40.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 42c | 37.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…0331backed No | 65c | 36.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 65c | 35.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 40c | 33.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 37c | 32.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…db6bbacked Yes | 34c | 30.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 59c | 24.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 24.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 64c | 23.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…ced1backed No | 65c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…b1c5backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 21.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 64c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 69c | 18.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 60c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.