TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Josh Hart: Points O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,665 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa1b3…0329backed Yes45c2,264$1,024 inWon+$1,240.4413534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No52c2,169$1,125 inLost-$1,124.841,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Yes48c2,119$1,007 inWon+$1,111.884252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No39c1,511$594 inLost-$593.961,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed No53c1,472$786 inLost-$78611252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed No58c1,190$687 inLost-$687.148347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed No55c1,000$550 inLost-$55015844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes50c972$486 inWon+$48627840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Yes44c882$389 inWon+$493.2843052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Yes60c616.22$368 inWon+$248.4632957.4%189 W · 140 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4dd…2abfbacked Yes49c584.46$286 inWon+$298.07944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes41c497.64$205 inWon+$292.6423850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4794…d6e5backed Yes39c497.44$193 inWon+$304.445149%25 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Yes49c254.29$124 inWon+$130.1922945.9%105 W · 124 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed No51c245.08$125 inLost-$124.9914346.2%66 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf9…ecebbacked Yes45c235.56$106 inWon+$129.56650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…867fbacked Yes49c222.45$109 inWon+$113.451435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa51…3e1cbacked Yes49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked No62c100$62 inLost-$6218031.7%57 W · 123 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked No52c100$52 inLost-$51.527059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7f1…d867backed Yes40c90.39$36 inWon+$54.234045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed No52c52.08$27 inLost-$27.083551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa1…4340backed Yes48c52.08$25 inWon+$27.087636.8%28 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Yes47c31.16$15 inWon+$16.441,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f62…0591backed Yes49c30.61$15 inWon+$15.612564%16 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked No47c21.72$10 inLost-$10.2110957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.