NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf730c685cf012679e6b66ca35727517057d04498e0f2668047d4d59034db9a2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 44c | 16,200$7,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,081.41 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 10,268$5,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 48c | 6,767$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248.11 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Under | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.69 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 6c | 3,225$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,025.05 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 7c | 2,840$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,641.2 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb915…8da5backed Under | 54c | 2,071$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.5 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 56c | 1,500$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 55c | 1,382$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 777.87$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.26 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 5c | 696$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.5 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 56c | 299.05$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.58 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79b…cf30backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 41c | 146.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 37c | 121.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…9fcdbacked Under | 59c | 118.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 59c | 116.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 68c | 73.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 40c | 72.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…3d27backed Under | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…1fd6backed Under | 63c | 63.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Under | 60c | 63.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 44c | 61.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 59.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 60c | 53.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 42c | 50.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 34c | 35.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…0865backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Over | 43c | 29.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…e667backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb690…648bbacked Under | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5this page
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Knicks vs. RaptorsKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Miles McBride: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.