NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a71867dcaa383c5f061ef6bff8d12b5a08f7744ac5fd9fb0f0b789eed1212e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 52c | 83,280$43,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,271.72 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 40,244$19,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,128.62 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 14,178$7,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,085.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 10,962$5,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,762.6 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 7,734$3,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,832.6 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Over | 49c | 3,527$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.29 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Under | 56c | 2,273$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 46c | 1,880$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.25 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,679$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 1,643$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.35 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 45c | 1,590$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.5 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 1,055$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 45c | 792.11$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.66 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 412$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.72 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 334.87$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 48c | 261.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 181.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 53c | 167.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 46c | 91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 323 | 52.6%170 W · 153 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 51c | 77.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Under | 47c | 59.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 56.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 52c | 53.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 51.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Under | 45c | 38.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Over | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…3751backed Under | 47c | 37.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e1…4cc7backed Over | 50c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5this page
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Knicks vs. RaptorsKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Miles McBride: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.