TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,036 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b9f…e125backed No55c2,200$1,200 inLost-$1,20011252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Yes47c2,111$1,000 inWon+$1,111.1113534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No50c1,461$728 inLost-$727.661,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed No50c900$450 inLost-$45032957.4%189 W · 140 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes45c888.88$400 inWon+$488.8821649.1%106 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Yes50c450.86$225 inWon+$225.951,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa51…3e1cbacked Yes50c396.08$200 inWon+$196.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x843a…043cbacked Yes49c326.22$160 inWon+$166.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+67.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bf9…ecebbacked Yes51c274.51$140 inWon+$134.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…867fbacked Yes51c158.82$81 inWon+$77.821435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked No51c90$46 inLost-$45.527059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaa1…4340backed Yes50c40$20 inWon+$207636.8%28 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Yes51c31.6$16 inWon+$15.451,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed9…3cdebacked No63c28.09$18 inLost-$17.755442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…cac7backed Yes63c16.59$10 inWon+$6.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f8…9908backed No66c15.26$10 inLost-$10.071145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.