AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47eb832347724a927266cc676062062b185bfe176211b819655bc0d4b75b6313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 1c | 20,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 6c | 18,220$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 5c | 15,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.52 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 13,310$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 11,500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 3c | 7,297$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed No | 1c | 6,702$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked No | 13c | 6,016$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 2c | 3,517$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 1c | 3,516$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0142…b983backed No | 1c | 3,385$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…1fcebacked No | 3c | 2,659$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,583$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 1c | 2,450$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked No | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…ba71backed No | 1c | 1,935$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…401ebacked No | 2c | 1,854$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 5c | 1,802$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked No | 5c | 1,492$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed No | 1c | 1,490$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 3c | 1,418$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,375$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 218 | 13.3%29 W · 189 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 4c | 1,238$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,193$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…0005backed No | 1c | 1,154$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 1c | 1,147$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 1,067$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed No | 3c | 984.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 953.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…ec26backed No | 2c | 933.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 3c | 776.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 682.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 4c | 657.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 5c | 511.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 5c | 399.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 379.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 6c | 318.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…2b47backed No | 7c | 279.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 228.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed No | 9c | 225.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 6c | 209.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 10c | 109.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?this page
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.