Movies · resolved market
Will Timothée Chalamet win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48098373ac3a3ea57c471822aed70f259fe39addbd75fda5feffda1473123dc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 27c | 929.63$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 28c | 500$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 49cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 27c | 490$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 26c | 489.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.15 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 68c | 403$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 27c | 242.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 72c | 220$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 32c | 202$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 192.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 75c | 152.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 106.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 26c | 105.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 29c | 101.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 73c | 92.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 24c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…76ecbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c9…7dc6backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 18c | 57.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 22c | 52.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 78c | 52.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 29c | 52.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…d36cbacked Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…2c3ebacked No | 73c | 41.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…5409backed No | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…5b2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed No | 78c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Timothée Chalamet win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama?this page
- Will Adrien Brody win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama?Yes won
- Will Colman Domingo win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama?No won
- Will Daniel Craig win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama?No won
- Will Ralph Fiennes win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama?No won
- Will Sebastian Stan win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.