Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Fearnley vs. Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4809a5105327053a5a61610beeee9fd5df6af6d51fe210871757684dcfe8958e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Fearnley, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Fonseca | 64c | 4,161$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.86 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Fearnley | 21c | 4,038$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.84 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Fearnley | 31c | 3,890$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.66 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Fearnley | 36c | 2,776$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.23 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Fearnley | 38c | 2,245$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.24 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Fonseca | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Fearnley | 33c | 1,886$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.53 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Fonseca | 65c | 1,592$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.09 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Fearnley | 35c | 1,500$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.95 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fonseca | 64c | 1,396$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.41 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Fonseca | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Fearnley | 36c | 970.08$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.08 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Fonseca | 69c | 948$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.36 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fearnley | 6c | 946$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Fearnley | 35c | 771.23$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.57 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Fearnley | 24c | 652.36$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5607backed Fonseca | 68c | 648.18$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…3038backed Fonseca | 67c | 586$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Fearnley | 35c | 391.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Fonseca | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…c02fbacked Fearnley | 36c | 372.47$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…38adbacked Fearnley | 34c | 333.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Fearnley | 33c | 297.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Fonseca | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…efaebacked Fonseca | 67c | 281.67$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Fonseca | 65c | 210$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Fearnley | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Fearnley | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Fonseca | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Fonseca | 65c | 160.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Fearnley | 32c | 152$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Fonseca | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Fearnley | 34c | 114.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…7709backed Fearnley | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Fonseca | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Fearnley | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Fearnley | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Fearnley | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Fonseca | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Fearnley | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Fonseca | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Fonseca | 66c | 63.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Fonseca | 68c | 49.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked Fearnley | 36c | 48.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fonseca | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Fonseca | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Fearnley | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…321abacked Fearnley | 36c | 39.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…0868backed Fonseca | 73c | 25.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Fonseca | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…88d5backed Fonseca | 65c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Fonseca | 66c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.