Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4821f36e10b21e6a6bef73c44aed4521bf744b60fbe72a22754201ad78c41d45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 1c | 15,445$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 26c | 1,571$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.92 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 22c | 951.43$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.26 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 47c | 828.01$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.08 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 621.04$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 526.57$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 36c | 501.57$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 308.27$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 299.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…cc2bbacked Yes | 46c | 260$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 202.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 201.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 191.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 191.67$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 170.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 164.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 140.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 129$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 48c | 126.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 45c | 125.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 44c | 113.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 52c | 112.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 110.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 56c | 109.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 73c | 102.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 102.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 93.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 88.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 75.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 55c | 71.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 70.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 46c | 69.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 72c | 69.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 61.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 61.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 56.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 58c | 55.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 54.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 45c | 44.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 44c | 43.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 41.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 40.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 39.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 49c | 37.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 56c | 36.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 56c | 35.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…55d7backed Yes | 52c | 34.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 33.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…7006backed Yes | 31c | 33.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 52c | 32.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 73c | 32.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 32.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 43c | 31.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 71c | 30.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…3d3abacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 55c | 29.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 26.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 24.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 23.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 54c | 22.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 56c | 21.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 58c | 20.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…5ab2backed Yes | 55c | 20.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.