Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x483d74f01a3376b3de356c75284151a7c60a4535a663fe7f355dc61ee2f7b08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 40,038$11,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,551.03 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 68c | 30,000$20,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,400 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 12,653$9,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,923.25 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed No | 67c | 4,935$3,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 78c | 4,339$3,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.27 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 3,250$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 32c | 2,918$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.36 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 15c | 2,500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 6c | 2,386$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.98 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 18c | 1,700$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 59c | 1,648$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.95 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 26c | 1,579$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.89 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 25c | 1,378$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.9 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 16c | 1,233$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…cba6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 992.25$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.49 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 16c | 702$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.76 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 16c | 616.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.51 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…bbcabacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 16c | 502.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.33 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 32c | 494.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.7 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 19c | 481.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.04 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 19c | 366.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 15c | 365.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.68 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 35cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 12c | 349.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 38c | 348.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 15c | 337.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…0645backed Yes | 18c | 326.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 21c | 297.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.63 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 15c | 240.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 13c | 239.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 17c | 236.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.11 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 35c | 225.43$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 16c | 197.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Yes | 17c | 181.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed No | 6c | 177.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed Yes | 15c | 162.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +203.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2b…a74cbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 69c | 144.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 53c | 141.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…1d12backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…f43fbacked Yes | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +427.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 25c | 102.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 15c | 99.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 21c | 98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 31c | 90.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Yes | 18c | 85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…983bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +185%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…df3cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 36cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fa…560fbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 45.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 79c | 45.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…e7d7backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-07?No won
- Will Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.