TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,457 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes31c1,345$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.3631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes34c918.75$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes5c564$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7847538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes34c438.88$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6316543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No69c416.38$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0661760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c404.78$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.355,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c391$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.214,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c387.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.134,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3e9…8e43backed No66c361.55$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c348.61$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c325.9$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.645,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d2…9145backed Yes15c308.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.12859.4%8 W · 77 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c305.16$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c304.22$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.085,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes25c280.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.721,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c269.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed No79c251.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.682857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c251.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.071,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes28c247.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1615435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes41c245.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked No49c236$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1204734%16 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes32c231.76$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.223429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c223.71$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.583,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No67c212.72$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes8c202.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.442,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c201$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.254,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes25c184.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6780130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes27c181.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No65c179.32$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes46c173.6$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4488028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes18c166.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No77c164.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4423666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked No66c162.5$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.579458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c158.03$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.741,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No62c155.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.383,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd10…7544backed No65c152.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.693548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b37…8f10backed Yes34c148.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes40c143.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No69c140.9$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.671,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No48c133.22$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9818142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c132.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes36c128.42$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.029239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes19c125.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4386226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No73c119.95$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.151,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes42c118.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.271,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43de…74b9backed No72c112.4$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.571838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No59c111.47$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.241,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No76c111.05$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.031,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes32c110.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.527029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes11c107.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd3…a457backed Yes21c107.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.584932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ff…b951backed Yes23c107$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No60c104.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.344344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No72c104.56$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.816550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes23c104$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.181637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes39c102.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6615044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No76c101.17$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7980957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes52c100.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9244448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x375a…dbd4backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.551,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes35c99.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.42,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No79c98.49$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes34c96.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c95.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.939,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes26c89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.191,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes17c85.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.286,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed No77c78.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.32556%14 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb534…2868backed Yes23c77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes16c75.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked No75c73.5$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6211835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked No80c71.06$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4511753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes23c71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3312832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No55c69.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4922746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No72c68.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.422,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No53c65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes32c60.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4113838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No70c60.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.217947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1522945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes18c59.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed No72c59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3241046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No71c56.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.382,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes37c56.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.83839.5%15 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.152,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed No64c52.65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.734846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No65c51.91$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.387,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c51.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x11d3…20c1backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5931…8ecbbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa88f…1096backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.53557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.534533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.98749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4c5…2420backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237250%36 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…b1bcbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes45c48.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.