NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a57a4133d9dc5a7d17504133a2f0c10f5260c8c817362ab4411b3e1952e239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Timberwolves, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Timberwolves | 22c | 772.1$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.27 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Timberwolves | 18c | 709.34$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Nuggets | 80c | 666$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Nuggets | 74c | 265.79$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Timberwolves | 28c | 193.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Nuggets | 74c | 188.06$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Timberwolves | 21c | 139.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Timberwolves | 23c | 119.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Nuggets | 77c | 109.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Timberwolves | 19c | 104.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Nuggets | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets | 74c | 97.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Timberwolves | 37c | 96.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Nuggets | 75c | 65.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Nuggets | 74c | 64.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…2f83backed Timberwolves | 25c | 50.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets | 74c | 44.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…0b3bbacked Timberwolves | 26c | 42.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nuggets | 74c | 33.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Nuggets | 63c | 23.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Mike Conley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.