NBA · resolved market
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf591b2ea71c68dae94a56548df2bfd38bd0bdae7d89e8fed79943eb7a31bc3b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cd1…285dbacked No | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.97 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7196…08d3backed No | 50c | 499.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 54c | 499.97$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 50c | 408.02$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.01 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 55c | 240$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…8cf3backed Yes | 46c | 125.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…7beebacked Yes | 45c | 117.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Yes | 45c | 111.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 50c | 97.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 51c | 89.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Yes | 46c | 40.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 54c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 48c | 30.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 53c | 19.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Mike Conley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.