NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe69af350e5ed5681a7de9f136c1e8f0e389c9ca8c07c0d4494102ca401caac06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Nuggets | 55c | 16,000$8,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,199.96 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Timberwolves | 45c | 8,596$3,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,868 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8101…e7bebacked Nuggets | 53c | 4,859$2,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +395.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 3,119$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.56 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -7.1wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Timberwolves | 48c | 2,185$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.13 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,990$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.14 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d7…baa3backed Timberwolves | 8c | 1,847$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.24per pick | 15cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,474$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.98 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…09fcbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 1,189$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.26 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…dcb1backed Timberwolves | 45c | 1,127$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.94 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nuggets | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Nuggets | 65c | 914.71$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.34 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Timberwolves | 48c | 738.16$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.32 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Timberwolves | 45c | 580.2$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.09 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 539.1$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.56 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Nuggets | 43c | 498.82$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.53 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Timberwolves | 45c | 413.79$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Timberwolves | 26c | 385.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Timberwolves | 8c | 323.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Timberwolves | 45c | 322.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nuggets | 75c | 294.74$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Nuggets | 52c | 291.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.85 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Timberwolves | 8c | 275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Nuggets | 49c | 270.03$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.17 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55bb…bc01backed Timberwolves | 52c | 222.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Timberwolves | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 197.08$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Nuggets | 53c | 183.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Timberwolves | 31c | 152.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Nuggets | 47c | 149.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Timberwolves | 45c | 134.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa467…587dbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 117.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Timberwolves | 49c | 106.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Nuggets | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Timberwolves | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Timberwolves | 55c | 85.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 77.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 73.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…e60abacked Timberwolves | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 53.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 298 | 44%131 W · 167 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Nuggets | 53c | 47.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Timberwolves | 41c | 46.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Nuggets | 45c | 36.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Timberwolves | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed Timberwolves | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Nuggets | 48c | 32.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Nuggets | 61c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…82d1backed Timberwolves | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed Nuggets | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Nuggets | 67c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Nuggets | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)this page
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Mike Conley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.