TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$341,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$345,346

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $341,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Nuggets55c82,182$44,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,188.6666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Timberwolves46c43,933$20,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,209.263240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Nuggets55c39,869$21,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,941.1120758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Timberwolves46c31,748$14,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,549.7669848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves45c30,324$13,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,643.434,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Timberwolves45c29,430$13,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,243.691,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Timberwolves45c24,175$10,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,878.7536954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Timberwolves47c20,000$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,40049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661f…098abacked Nuggets54c18,765$10,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,631.815655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves48c15,164$7,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,278.761,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Nuggets53c11,888$6,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,587.3729650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Timberwolves45c9,717$4,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,372.8520946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Timberwolves48c8,895$4,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,245.1193148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Nuggets53c7,820$4,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.5119359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Nuggets55c5,911$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.7690650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Timberwolves45c5,299$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,384.6231644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Nuggets52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Timberwolves45c4,739$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.331,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Nuggets55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80022055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Nuggets52c3,922$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.6320948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Nuggets52c3,780$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.417055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Nuggets54c3,685$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.2859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Timberwolves45c3,674$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.3132351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Nuggets51c3,295$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.9355251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Nuggets52c3,266$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.7736359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets54c2,887$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.554,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Timberwolves50c2,548$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.3611864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Nuggets52c2,454$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.9970246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Timberwolves46c2,376$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.9457950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Timberwolves45c2,360$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.9363746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Timberwolves48c2,123$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.0616743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb4a…f216backed Nuggets52c2,049$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.63966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves55c2,027$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.281,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets56c1,960$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.598,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets55c1,945$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.384,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked Nuggets50c1,936$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.254440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4321…8fdcbacked Timberwolves53c1,836$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.751250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6638…0b09backed Nuggets54c1,801$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.342433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Timberwolves48c1,780$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.511,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nuggets55c1,780$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80164651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Nuggets47c1,639$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.822,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Timberwolves1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15802.5%2 W · 78 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-88.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Timberwolves1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15437%3 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets54c1,415$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.896,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Nuggets54c1,381$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.3421957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Timberwolves46c1,359$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.1887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Nuggets52c1,307$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.5421152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064b…9990backed Nuggets54c1,204$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Timberwolves47c1,191$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.851,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Timberwolves31c1,186$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.9922140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Nuggets54c1,111$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.3328838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Timberwolves1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101236.5%8 W · 115 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-89.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Timberwolves1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10981%1 W · 97 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Timberwolves33c998.36$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.4628056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Nuggets52c953.21$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.4466352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Nuggets52c919.26$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.2425641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd25…7d10backed Nuggets54c900.37$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.177642.1%32 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Timberwolves48c807.33$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.528242.7%35 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908e…2291backed Nuggets53c733.43$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.711172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+52.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Nuggets54c681.06$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.2912451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nuggets50c680.01$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.512,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2018…dfc5backed Nuggets53c641.75$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.623737.8%14 W · 23 L-6.1wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-30.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Nuggets60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24018844.7%84 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x089c…8df0backed Timberwolves45c576.54$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.493345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Nuggets52c525.21$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.124247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Timberwolves7c503.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2227937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x2179…a75fbacked Nuggets60c503$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…bc09backed Nuggets79c498.22$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.69977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6919…7b24backed Nuggets53c485.9$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.3710045%45 W · 55 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Timberwolves45c483.32$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4914854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Timberwolves26c469.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.261,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Nuggets53c459.35$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.8947651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Nuggets54c450.19$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.0950954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Nuggets55c446.16$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.81,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Timberwolves48c405.5$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.643948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Nuggets48c399.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20614059.3%83 W · 57 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Timberwolves49c395.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8820552.2%107 W · 98 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Timberwolves48c390.43$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.46845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5782…8ce5backed Nuggets54c388.96$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.929652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Nuggets52c370.31$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7514946.3%69 W · 80 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Nuggets54c360.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.678453.6%45 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Nuggets55c353.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2237647.3%178 W · 198 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc8…6655backed Nuggets55c353.2$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.942634.6%9 W · 17 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-38.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x840d…3708backed Nuggets68c336.04$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.011553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Timberwolves45c333.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0459250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Timberwolves48c314.48$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9516642.2%70 W · 96 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Timberwolves44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Nuggets67c299.97$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.991747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed Timberwolves46c295.37$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Nuggets54c291.22$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9613151.1%67 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc041…a87bbacked Timberwolves33c290.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Timberwolves47c257.5$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0310745.8%49 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Timberwolves46c252.41$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1115650.6%79 W · 77 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nuggets53c210.42$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4589850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Timberwolves53c202.44$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9989048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Nuggets59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8254951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Nuggets53c194.41$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6216052.5%84 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Timberwolves47c193.64$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.012744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Nuggets53c183.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1816959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Nuggets52c178.7$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.787451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.