WNBA · resolved market
Fever vs. Aces
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4901c7b6a094d71947da8c4ec5c6f12c8ac8e91a69495df783647a45892b9148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Feverof Fever, Aces
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Fever | 23c | 7,164$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,501.26 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Aces | 78c | 5,824$4,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,545.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Fever | 36c | 5,541$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,564.86 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Aces | 19c | 5,108$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.9 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fever | 65c | 4,254$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a2…aa70backed Aces | 79c | 3,774$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Aces | 78c | 2,742$2,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.15 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Fever | 22c | 2,270$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +353.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Aces | 68c | 2,031$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8fe6backed Fever | 23c | 1,974$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f82cbacked Aces | 53c | 1,873$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fever | 23c | 1,462$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.35 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fever | 21c | 1,135$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.88 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…314ebacked Fever | 64c | 1,100$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…adf8backed Fever | 22c | 1,073$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Fever | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Aces | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Aces | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Aces | 76c | 871.81$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.58 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Aces | 77c | 856.08$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Fever | 23c | 800$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…9110backed Fever | 37c | 740.6$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.58 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Aces | 77c | 715.18$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Aces | 71c | 712$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.86 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Aces | 76c | 639.75$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Aces | 77c | 576.78$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aces | 78c | 467.64$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.21 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fever | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Fever | 23c | 431.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Fever | 22c | 409.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Fever | 23c | 374.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.42 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Fever | 21c | 348.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.93 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Aces | 79c | 320.68$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Aces | 42c | 313.73$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.03 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Fever | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Aces | 63c | 290$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Aces | 55c | 270.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Aces | 77c | 268.37$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.63 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e1…57c3backed Aces | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Aces | 12c | 236.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Fever | 46c | 217.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Aces | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Aces | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Fever | 21c | 192.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Aces | 76c | 154.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Fever | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aces | 57c | 131$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Aces | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Aces | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…702abacked Aces | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…ed4fbacked Fever | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Fever | 22c | 102.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Fever | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Fever | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fever | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…4b1ebacked Aces | 78c | 98.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Fever | 22c | 89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…8af2backed Fever | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Aces | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Fever | 20c | 69.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Aces | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Aces | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…9f33backed Aces | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…d029backed Aces | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608e…525bbacked Fever | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Aces | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Aces | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed Fever | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Fever | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…9e97backed Aces | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Aces | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Aces | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Aces | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2e…af91backed Aces | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.