MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x493247e7665c5905e58e8ecef0eeddada03a5de4dd09ead8dbbf0d7c5b2374df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Yes | 60c | 13,007$7,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,254.49 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 41c | 1,910$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.6 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 41c | 1,346$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 41c | 578.28$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 51c | 559.1$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.41 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed No | 42c | 503.39$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.39 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 40c | 495$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 40c | 402$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 41c | 315$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 64c | 278$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 56c | 201$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 41c | 171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Yes | 27c | 170$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…3691backed No | 44c | 111.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 54c | 110.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 56c | 90.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed No | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14e…3315backed No | 42c | 78.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked No | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 68c | 42.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.