World Politics · resolved market
Will Vincenzo Ceccarelli win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4968f5ed636679be665981adc626709988c91dfca343eeed310ec0d1448bd39a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 548.29$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed Yes | 28c | 424.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 279.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 24c | 257.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 185$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 129.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 127.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc873…f963backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 62.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…560ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 36.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 75c | 33.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 24.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…ea65backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…d42dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…752abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…4ccdbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…2f81backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…1a53backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…03a7backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vincenzo Ceccarelli win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election?this page
- Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.