TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof EDward Gaming, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$447,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$555,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $447,843 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd202…8973backed EDward Gaming17c38,017$6,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,371.1438235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed EDward Gaming17c25,552$4,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,243.911,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed EDward Gaming16c12,904$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.611,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed EDward Gaming16c12,835$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.5351146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed EDward Gaming15c10,596$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.322,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x372f…182abacked EDward Gaming0c7,928$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.779258.7%54 W · 38 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EDward Gaming17c7,509$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.022,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed EDward Gaming18c7,084$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.4528734.1%98 W · 189 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed EDward Gaming7c6,616$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.3448533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked EDward Gaming17c6,000$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0301,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed EDward Gaming15c5,761$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.261,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb143…f649backed EDward Gaming17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.987848.7%38 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked EDward Gaming16c4,750$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.511938.7%46 W · 73 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed EDward Gaming15c4,411$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.6585836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed EDward Gaming16c4,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6401,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked EDward Gaming16c3,615$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.841,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed EDward Gaming2c3,500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7025236.9%93 W · 159 L+1.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed EDward Gaming17c3,500$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59532234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed EDward Gaming18c3,336$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed EDward Gaming10c3,200$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.991,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed EDward Gaming16c3,125$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013831.2%43 W · 95 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked EDward Gaming18c3,038$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.6122336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed EDward Gaming15c3,016$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.6715046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked EDward Gaming18c2,787$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6667250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked EDward Gaming16c2,631$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42137640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf63d…dd42backed EDward Gaming20c2,514$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.982638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c39…36c6backed EDward Gaming1c2,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3212119.8%24 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked EDward Gaming19c2,460$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.741,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked EDward Gaming6c2,372$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6234536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0de8…6cf3backed EDward Gaming21c2,341$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.9315334.6%53 W · 100 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed EDward Gaming18c2,240$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40038835.3%137 W · 251 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed EDward Gaming16c2,207$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.1548742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed EDward Gaming16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32097427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed EDward Gaming4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c4d…9e37backed EDward Gaming2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed EDward Gaming1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed EDward Gaming17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed EDward Gaming1c2,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed EDward Gaming13c1,912$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018036.1%65 W · 115 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed EDward Gaming1c1,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111543.9%6 W · 148 L-0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked EDward Gaming17c1,765$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30027142.4%115 W · 156 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked EDward Gaming18c1,675$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30075630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed EDward Gaming15c1,663$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.41,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed EDward Gaming16c1,625$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9422536.9%83 W · 142 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed EDward Gaming5c1,515$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756518.5%12 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked EDward Gaming17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25529236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed EDward Gaming18c1,420$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.62,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a7…4d4ebacked EDward Gaming4c1,300$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5818732.1%60 W · 127 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc733…4f14backed EDward Gaming18c1,222$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206453.1%34 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed EDward Gaming17c1,199$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.9724650%123 W · 123 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb063…fa55backed EDward Gaming17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked EDward Gaming1c1,158$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.156297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed EDward Gaming13c1,060$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1178043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked EDward Gaming19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed EDward Gaming1c1,050$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.556432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed EDward Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1035943.5%156 W · 203 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed EDward Gaming17c999.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17017342.8%74 W · 99 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked EDward Gaming10c964.25$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.321,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed EDward Gaming13c900$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11475738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed EDward Gaming15c896.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5547838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1052…441bbacked EDward Gaming17c869.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022558.2%131 W · 94 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed EDward Gaming10c785.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.072,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed EDward Gaming17c781.92$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.931,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f24…b463backed EDward Gaming6c699.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4525149.8%125 W · 126 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed EDward Gaming15c680$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10247533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4f…0bf2backed EDward Gaming17c668$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.563161.3%19 W · 12 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+49.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed EDward Gaming11c657$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.183,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0aa…e8aebacked EDward Gaming2c650$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked EDward Gaming17c647.06$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11027745.8%127 W · 150 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed EDward Gaming14c646.02$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2913342.9%57 W · 76 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed EDward Gaming16c599.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948f…3b9ebacked Bilibili Gaming80c596.71$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.34560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed EDward Gaming18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012441.1%51 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked EDward Gaming18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025256.3%142 W · 110 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked EDward Gaming4c552.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2037141.2%153 W · 218 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed EDward Gaming4c550$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2135223.9%84 W · 268 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5513…f915backed EDward Gaming6c550$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354740.4%19 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+56.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed EDward Gaming17c529.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9026639.5%105 W · 161 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb885…e677backed EDward Gaming12c516.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed Bilibili Gaming79c506.51$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5117457.5%100 W · 74 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed EDward Gaming20c505.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e2…8fb6backed EDward Gaming6c499.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026236.6%96 W · 166 L+24.6wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+27.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed EDward Gaming16c498.84$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.062,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked EDward Gaming10c494.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.961,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed EDward Gaming19c477.26$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0742735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa644…026ebacked EDward Gaming19c461.35$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.362556%14 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a63…5b30backed EDward Gaming22c444.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016952.1%88 W · 81 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed EDward Gaming17c411.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Bilibili Gaming80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8033748.4%163 W · 174 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9f…894fbacked EDward Gaming14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566564.6%42 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed EDward Gaming17c399.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6894144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked EDward Gaming18c397.7$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5982650%413 W · 413 L+3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf173…e01dbacked EDward Gaming12c391.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa8…e33ebacked EDward Gaming3c389.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111560.9%70 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked EDward Gaming18c376.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6742540.7%173 W · 252 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed EDward Gaming18c366.47$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.857351.3%294 W · 279 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed EDward Gaming18c344$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9219041.6%79 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked EDward Gaming4c340$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.24202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed EDward Gaming6c337.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed EDward Gaming10c322.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4586943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.