TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof EDward Gaming, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$808,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$942,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $808,328 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed EDward Gaming5c81,457$4,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,211.011,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed EDward Gaming15c45,088$6,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,763.1938735.9%139 W · 248 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked EDward Gaming11c29,220$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.691,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed EDward Gaming12c27,079$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,375.1915356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed EDward Gaming19c23,005$4,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,296.71,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed EDward Gaming9c21,094$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.3281443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked EDward Gaming23c20,599$4,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,725.8957546.3%266 W · 309 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed EDward Gaming6c17,156$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.7919041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked EDward Gaming8c16,429$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.734536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed EDward Gaming13c11,976$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.231,22135.9%438 W · 783 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b5…66e8backed EDward Gaming0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed EDward Gaming15c8,262$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.831644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked EDward Gaming6c7,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked EDward Gaming13c6,900$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89720847.6%99 W · 109 L+17.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+37.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked EDward Gaming14c6,709$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.9576030.3%230 W · 530 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked EDward Gaming17c5,726$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.891,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked EDward Gaming15c5,680$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85290937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked EDward Gaming15c5,253$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78837640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed EDward Gaming13c5,183$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.8886136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed EDward Gaming2c5,025$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2525236.9%93 W · 159 L+1.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Bilibili Gaming75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25015933.3%53 W · 106 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed EDward Gaming18c5,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.9955639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed EDward Gaming18c4,692$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.0597527.8%271 W · 704 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked EDward Gaming17c4,414$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.2235353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed EDward Gaming17c4,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66048834%166 W · 322 L+25.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked EDward Gaming14c4,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56011938.7%46 W · 73 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed EDward Gaming13c3,781$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.6720454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed EDward Gaming13c3,737$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.51,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb97b…87dcbacked EDward Gaming2c3,600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5714654.8%80 W · 66 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed EDward Gaming2c3,222$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.65260%0 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed EDward Gaming17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.0758346.7%272 W · 311 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f09…1f55backed EDward Gaming3c2,797$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.91136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed EDward Gaming12c2,777$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.771,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked EDward Gaming13c2,745$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.8518953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed EDward Gaming14c2,743$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.9147933.2%159 W · 320 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed EDward Gaming13c2,700$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33859854.2%324 W · 274 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed EDward Gaming15c2,640$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.592,24037.3%836 W · 1,404 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed EDward Gaming14c2,635$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.913632.4%44 W · 92 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a4c…068abacked EDward Gaming5c2,600$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12710335.9%37 W · 66 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked EDward Gaming1c2,600$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.676347.1%45 W · 589 L-1.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Bilibili Gaming75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62546257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27fd…9187backed EDward Gaming1c2,406$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.821136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed EDward Gaming2c2,400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365873.6%21 W · 566 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+176.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x816c…ac2cbacked EDward Gaming17c2,387$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed EDward Gaming10c2,246$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.92,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked EDward Gaming26c2,163$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.54052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed EDward Gaming14c2,117$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3848338.7%187 W · 296 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed EDward Gaming15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,01447.6%483 W · 531 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed EDward Gaming14c2,000$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.4433632.4%109 W · 227 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed EDward Gaming1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed EDward Gaming14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28090443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked EDward Gaming16c1,962$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.931,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5db…0716backed EDward Gaming11c1,867$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510343.7%45 W · 58 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed EDward Gaming18c1,610$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28356432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c39…36c6backed EDward Gaming12c1,600$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1212119.8%24 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed EDward Gaming13c1,600$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023141.1%95 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed EDward Gaming15c1,568$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.82,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed EDward Gaming19c1,534$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1939140.4%158 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked EDward Gaming18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked EDward Gaming1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1596057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed EDward Gaming1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151541.9%3 W · 151 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed EDward Gaming12c1,425$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2138154.3%207 W · 174 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed EDward Gaming13c1,350$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5358850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed EDward Gaming15c1,309$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.566460.9%39 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EDward Gaming16c1,185$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.012,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ee…45cebacked EDward Gaming18c1,160$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.48840.9%36 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5df…0f22backed EDward Gaming18c1,150$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed EDward Gaming13c1,139$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506518.5%12 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed EDward Gaming2c1,071$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9724935.3%88 W · 161 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed EDward Gaming15c1,067$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16019335.2%68 W · 125 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed EDward Gaming15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017342.8%74 W · 99 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Bilibili Gaming75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed EDward Gaming3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b56…6ba2backed EDward Gaming15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503423.5%8 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked EDward Gaming14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1406631.8%21 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03bc…ad27backed Bilibili Gaming79c974.68$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6816761.1%102 W · 65 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc4…d48cbacked EDward Gaming4c974.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2127540.4%111 W · 164 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed EDward Gaming13c972.45$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13047933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed EDward Gaming16c969.25$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0840446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked EDward Gaming21c954.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4650242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed EDward Gaming20c927$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8486144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked EDward Gaming11c917.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9588544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8640…cdf1backed EDward Gaming13c915.38$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1197334.2%25 W · 48 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf47d…2834backed EDward Gaming13c905.85$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7633142%139 W · 192 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd7…f491backed EDward Gaming8c880$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1742246.4%196 W · 226 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed EDward Gaming13c874.49$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0452344.9%235 W · 288 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked EDward Gaming12c863.54$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10323341.2%96 W · 137 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed EDward Gaming16c843.31$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9331321.1%66 W · 247 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed EDward Gaming14c800$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121,41243.8%618 W · 794 L-3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked EDward Gaming8c790.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.262,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56e9…ea02backed EDward Gaming6c786.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4604…d57dbacked EDward Gaming11c785.4$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.373560%21 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x817c…0817backed EDward Gaming17c765.87$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7212045%54 W · 66 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3453…efb6backed EDward Gaming18c757.3$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.36825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5a…f064backed EDward Gaming9c742.11$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.792429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed EDward Gaming14c714.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032351.4%166 W · 157 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed EDward Gaming15c714.19$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.913342.9%57 W · 76 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed EDward Gaming2c702.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.794146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked EDward Gaming15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10539747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed EDward Gaming15c686.67$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10352046%239 W · 281 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.