TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x72b5…66e8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: MLB, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 55 out of 100; worst Lol at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT3619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.8
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.6
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$63.82
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.9
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$48.97
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.9
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winnerbacked Weibo Gaming Youth Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.54
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+332.5%+$332.54
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5)backed JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$85.71
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.19
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+204.4%+$40.88
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)backed EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5)backed Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT2528%7 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+128.9%+$100
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$87
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+300%+$150
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)backed Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+88.9%+$135.42
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spread: Spain (-2.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 25 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+207.7%+$103.85
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$61.11
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padresbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$56.38
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Bbacked Lynn Vision · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+109.4%+$17.64
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Abacked BC.Game Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winnerbacked Lynn Vision · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+82.3%+$24.7
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group Abacked TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
All 8 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$233.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$85.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.