Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49bf73d0b092f0e7a4b6d544cac01ba112219473cb93513de34e526c76eed49c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 11c | 951.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 4c | 811.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…568abacked No | 2c | 806.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 531.2$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.78 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…0fc3backed No | 3c | 482.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked No | 4c | 482.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 71c | 467.97$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.26 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed No | 3c | 466.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 212.27$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.72 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 29c | 170.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.34 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 72c | 141.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 73c | 139.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 76c | 116.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 25c | 97.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked No | 18c | 77.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed No | 30c | 69.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 47.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 32c | 43.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 41.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed No | 72c | 27.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 69c | 25.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa end in a draw?this page
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-08-20?No won
- Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.