Champions League · resolved market
The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a06692aecd3e40bdfa68be868d5872280b493bec342efa96899a037ce992ff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 11c | 1,502$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 5c | 1,043$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed Under | 64c | 1,014$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 1,007$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.18 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 828.29$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 36c | 447.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.19 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 427.65$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.23 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 11c | 393.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38bd…b8f3backed Under | 63c | 317.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 37c | 256$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 8c | 193.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 36c | 192.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…ad52backed Over | 38c | 182.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 64c | 180.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 57c | 164.41$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…100dbacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 47c | 131.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Over | 28c | 130.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 100.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…ff88backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 63c | 95.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 62c | 76.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 37c | 65.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Under | 61c | 53.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.1wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 51.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 38c | 49.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 38c | 45.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 36c | 41.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Sabah FK (-1.5)The New Saints FC won
- Spread: Sabah FK (-2.5)The New Saints FC won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: O/U 2.5Over won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 1.5Over won
- The New Saints FC vs. Sabah FK: The New Saints FC O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.