Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a18427dd5e05be70afe75bb6d3f316f4abfc23d5620761eaad170982c84eb6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 30c | 992.07$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.72 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 16c | 903.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 562.52$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 262.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 200$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 196$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 178.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 35c | 176.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 163.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 156.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 36c | 149.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 129$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 53c | 129$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 126$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 72c | 122.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 121.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 116.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 113.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 113.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 22c | 101.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 39c | 97.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 78c | 90.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 61c | 89.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 81.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 36c | 72.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 69.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 61c | 67.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 66.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 61.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 61.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 57.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 36c | 54.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 50.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 71c | 47.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 40.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 50c | 40.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 40.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 36.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 26.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 20.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 78c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.