Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf456005d735f9c86f264527857bfe1c33a6b788789d9502cb34f4dd0645822b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 33c | 2,131$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 18c | 678.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 403.9$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 279.49$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 76c | 267.8$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 262.96$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 255$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 234.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 228.79$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 210$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 37c | 199.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 188$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 187.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 37c | 150.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 144.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 135.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 123.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 117.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 116.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 113.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 25c | 102.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 97.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 91.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 70c | 89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 83.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 81.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 74.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 22c | 72.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 31c | 66.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 60c | 64.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 21c | 63.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed Yes | 33c | 60.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 50.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 48.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 48.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 46c | 46.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 42.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 63c | 40.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 31c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 72c | 36.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 36.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed No | 75c | 35.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 56c | 35.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 36c | 32.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 26.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 44c | 25.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 21.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 62c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 72c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed No | 80c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.