Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a23e44c8d229657aef9ce710d8dcf921c19fd10090c079b4763766c260c1a92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 30c | 1,392$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.11 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 68c | 938.5$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.98 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 18c | 617.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 77c | 613.04$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.74 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 542.5$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 471.72$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 74c | 375.1$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.38 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 57c | 373.65$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.52 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 368$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 335.13$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 289.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 46c | 286.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 283.38$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 57c | 267.15$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.09 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 260.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 35c | 257.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 22c | 230$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 54c | 224.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 217$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.31 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 216.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 48c | 215.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 52c | 209.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 199.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 186.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.87 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6313…1db9backed Yes | 16c | 183.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 173.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 165.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 148.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 145.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 17c | 145.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 48c | 132.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 46c | 128.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 128.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…fa54backed Yes | 20c | 125.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 124.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 28c | 119.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 16c | 117.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 110.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 37c | 107.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 103.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 45c | 102.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed No | 76c | 93.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 16c | 89.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9953…9ef2backed Yes | 35c | 85.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 85.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 36c | 84.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 36c | 83.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…3d06backed Yes | 31c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…ec84backed Yes | 17c | 79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 44c | 73.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 71.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 31c | 70.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 51c | 70.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 18c | 69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 18c | 68.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 21c | 68.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 37c | 67.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…985abacked Yes | 45c | 66.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 74c | 65.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 46c | 63.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 62.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 66c | 62.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 61.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 42c | 59.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 54c | 58.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 56c | 58.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 57.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…66a2backed Yes | 44c | 56.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 21c | 55.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 55.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…fee5backed Yes | 48c | 53.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 44c | 49.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 54c | 43.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 40.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No | 77c | 38.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 38c | 38.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 75c | 37.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…c24fbacked No | 71c | 36.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 33c | 35.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 59c | 35.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 47c | 34.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 33.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 48c | 31.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 49c | 30.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.