TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x198e…ede0backed Yes30c1,392$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.1156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes68c938.5$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.9812228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb286…aac7backed No18c617.42$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1148726.4%23 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No77c613.04$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.749634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No42c542.5$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.262,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed Yes52c499.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2404032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No44c471.72$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8476755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed No74c375.1$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.3811947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes57c373.65$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5242130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c368$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No56c335.13$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.732,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes17c289.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.1910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes46c286.24$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4910439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No63c283.38$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.843,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes57c267.15$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.0995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c260.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.035,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No35c257.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes22c230$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.87628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes54c224.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0917135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes15c220$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.158551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes15c217$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes19c216.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.751,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No48c215.7$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3680560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No52c209.81$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.971159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes29c199.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.0474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes21c186.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6313…1db9backed Yes16c183.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.411136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes30c173.34$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.821,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c165.39$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.795,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No49c148.46$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.681,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No37c145.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.071,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes17c145.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.033636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes48c132.63$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0310141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes46c128.8$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.613740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No52c128.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.051,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae72…fa54backed Yes20c125.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+151.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes18c124.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.851,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes28c119.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes16c117.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5929941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No25c110.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.161,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes37c107.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.363636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c103.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes45c102.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.091,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.992828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5868…64c8backed No76c93.28$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.261747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c89.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked Yes16c89.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7811164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9953…9ef2backed Yes35c85.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.76850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No68c85.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.881,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes36c84.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0727421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes36c83.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd837…3d06backed Yes31c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.62147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.083938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x996b…ec84backed Yes17c79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes44c73.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.512733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c71.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.814,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes31c70.71$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5112941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes51c70.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6734651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes15c70$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.58337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…98d0backed Yes18c69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.34368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No18c68.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3429717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No21c68.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes46c68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0344945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes37c67.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.834540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes45c66.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.782128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No74c65.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.930565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed No46c63.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No43c62.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1731050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No66c62.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4137669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No55c61.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.811,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes42c59.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.218234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes54c58.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9420144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No56c58.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7723549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c57.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdc60…66a2backed Yes44c56.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26da…8999backed Yes21c55.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.034323.3%10 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes45c55.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.353,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda9…fee5backed Yes48c53.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.471233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes44c49.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.914447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes44c48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes51c47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0311138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No73c46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No44c44.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7721848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed No54c43.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.539741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.559239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes39c40.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8652446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes45c39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No77c38.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.844628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd4…6084backed Yes38c38.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7113534.1%46 W · 89 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No75c37.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8819353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a17…c24fbacked No71c36.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes33c35.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.988134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes59c35.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6615717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No47c34.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3927464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes65c33.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.031,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4148…d2f6backed Yes48c31.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.374062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes49c30.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8617553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.