Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeb532d835dc9b4a7be7aa7ec236116f926e759ef933f0f3ea74a2b9b3bfb82e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed Yes | 11c | 1,294$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 40c | 1,092$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.52 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 32c | 1,076$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.78 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 776.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 570.08$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 542.37$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 459.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 3c | 360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 80c | 354.73$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 325.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 24c | 318.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 305.68$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 303.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 280.13$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 16c | 277.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 273.04$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 245.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 231.44$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 9c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 24c | 206.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 67c | 192.14$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde6…040fbacked Yes | 13c | 183.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 35c | 180.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…393ebacked No | 63c | 175.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 17c | 161.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 29c | 155.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 150.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 24c | 149.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 7c | 141.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 140.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 13c | 136$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 134.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 130.59$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…3d06backed Yes | 19c | 127.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed Yes | 8c | 125.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 122.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 18c | 112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 10c | 107.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 31c | 104.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 100.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 31c | 93.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 31c | 92.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 91.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…db5fbacked Yes | 45c | 91.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 87.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 19c | 87.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 81.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 17c | 81.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 80.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…a52ebacked Yes | 34c | 80.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 75.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 31c | 74.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 17c | 71.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 44c | 68.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 65.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 33c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…985abacked Yes | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…8d64backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf4…d969backed Yes | 35c | 51.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…2215backed No | 63c | 45.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…1bd2backed Yes | 45c | 44.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 40.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 40.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 38c | 39.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 60c | 38.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…09a6backed Yes | 32c | 37.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 36.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked No | 68c | 36.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 64c | 35.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…c357backed Yes | 33c | 34.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed No | 64c | 34.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 33.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 45c | 33.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 68c | 33.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ac…c4a8backed Yes | 41c | 32.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…80d8backed No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…f855backed No | 62c | 31.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.