TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d08…54c9backed Yes11c1,294$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.098356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes40c1,092$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.5260519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes32c1,076$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.7856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes10c776.32$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.841,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c570.08$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.171,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c542.37$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes2c459.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.441,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ca3…8109backed Yes3c360$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83172.5%8 W · 309 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked No80c354.73$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.045468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c325.43$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes6c323.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.286073.3%20 W · 587 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes24c318.7$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c305.68$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.175,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes32c303.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No70c280.13$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.922,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes16c277.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.255812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c273.04$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.71,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb286…aac7backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.758726.4%23 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes8c245.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.324,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No69c231.44$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3976755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes9c210$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1910439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes24c206.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.839634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No67c192.14$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7471159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcde6…040fbacked Yes13c183.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes35c180.54$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.924628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6476…393ebacked No63c175.06$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.061181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked Yes17c161.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.736913%9 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes29c155.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes7c150.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes24c149.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.997628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes7c141.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes31c140.11$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.693,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes13c136$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3446452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No73c134.73$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.823,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No71c130.59$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.482,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes19c130$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.661929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd837…3d06backed Yes19c127.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dd…dda7backed Yes8c125.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No62c122.28$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No66c120$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2689661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes18c112$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7713941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1192028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes10c107.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1127421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes31c104.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8411835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No62c100.43$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.351,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.251,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4029953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.384344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3312941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed Yes31c93.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2411257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes31c92.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2916836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes26c91.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6632738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…db5fbacked Yes45c91.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes18c87.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.399,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes19c87.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2943430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No76c81.96$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.474,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cae…e877backed Yes17c81.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.463724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-3.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No60c81.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c80.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.862,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6739…a52ebacked Yes34c80.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-67.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No78c75.8$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.552,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes31c74.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9693837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a8…3509backed Yes17c71.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Yes44c68.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No71c65.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.11,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.415843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.255,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x381d…07edbacked Yes33c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.623336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+59.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No73c54.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.618041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes40c52.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5020…8d64backed Yes38c52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.761172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bf4…d969backed Yes35c51.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.291127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.531124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes25c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71ab…2215backed No63c45.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce69…1bd2backed Yes45c44.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No67c40.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.513,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No61c40.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed No59c39.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.413167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes38c39.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No60c38.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5815669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3d…09a6backed Yes32c37.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No68c36.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8357264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7da…138cbacked No68c36.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.611586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick67cpaid+28.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3580…714ebacked No64c35.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.742152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44f9…c357backed Yes33c34.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick64cpaid-45.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f7d…06e3backed No64c34.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.153161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No66c33.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9a…371abacked Yes45c33.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5604…912bbacked No68c33.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.561586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+38.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20ac…c4a8backed Yes41c32.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33d…80d8backed No62c32.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4ca…f855backed No62c31.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.