Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a65542017eca804d155e9ae29d373b8f37725f2dad31fa5237ec460e6c04e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 47c | 1,100$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.93 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 674.85$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 496.22$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.9 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 382.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 64c | 286.83$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 278$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 274$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 18c | 216.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 52c | 207.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 206.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 56c | 194.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 50c | 187.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 55c | 179.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 52c | 175.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 156$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 142$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 54c | 127.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 123.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 123.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 15c | 120.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 119$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 47c | 103.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 103.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 101.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 100.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 38c | 97.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 96.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 94.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 53c | 85.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 82.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 68.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 67.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 40c | 66.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 63.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 63.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…1a48backed Yes | 47c | 58.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 55.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 47c | 52.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed Yes | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 48.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 49c | 46.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 45.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…dfe9backed Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 51c | 43.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 47c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 40.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 39.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 48c | 39.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 38.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 38.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 38.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 55c | 38.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 36.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 36.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 34.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 49c | 33.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…3536backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 54c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 40c | 26.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 58c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 23.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 47c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 21.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 53c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…4853backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 19.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.