TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,711 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x92e3…ab49backed Yes47c1,100$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.937138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes44c674.85$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.318,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes45c496.22$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.91,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes3c382.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.831,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No64c286.83$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No53c278$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c274$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.935,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes18c216.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.592,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes52c207.88$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1425947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c206.32$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.629,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes56c194.83$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3118043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes50c187.29$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No55c179.76$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes52c175.92$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.62751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c156$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.635,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No53c142$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.741,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes54c127.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.862,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c123.3$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.694,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes46c123.23$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.681,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes15c120.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.648523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes42c119$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.481,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes47c103.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1413540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes50c103.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0542148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No62c101.86$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.351,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No73c100.7$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.932,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3715939%62 W · 97 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked Yes14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1416833.9%57 W · 111 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes38c97.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No69c96.5$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.74,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c94.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.335,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes53c85.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5425954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No46c82.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.263,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.74,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c68.25$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.092,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes47c67.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.831,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes40c66.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.437355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes44c63.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.951,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes42c63.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc4…1a48backed Yes47c58.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.471145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No63c55.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.682,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed No54c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.313950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No52c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.45538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes39c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0633350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes47c52.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.564431.8%14 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.513554.1%73 W · 62 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd47…c395backed Yes49c49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.011827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c48.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.452,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes49c46.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8933746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No52c45.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6987…dfe9backed Yes50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes51c43.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.431,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes47c43.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2314745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes46c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No53c42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No61c40.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.962,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes51c39.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd988…6ce5backed Yes48c39.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8111840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No58c38.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.222,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No48c38.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes46c38.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6154335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No55c38.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1163538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed No53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7425058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No45c36.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.833,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No49c36.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.294,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No51c34.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.752,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes49c33.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.267,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.38,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.867336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bc4…3536backed Yes50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed No54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.786437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No54c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.529153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes40c26.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes51c26.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3164859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No58c24.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.342227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No60c23.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.252,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes47c23.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8318254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No73c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.941,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No53c21.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.252,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No53c20.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.529354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1094066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.23,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.69053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f5…4853backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…c62ebacked No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No66c19.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No55c18.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.