TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec86…60e4backed No76c1,247$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.761,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes22c527.31$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.681,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c500.61$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.198,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c429.73$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.215,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c388.14$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad9…2647backed Yes22c328.05$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.162913.8%4 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c309.33$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No13c275$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c274$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.25,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes41c263$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa6…f2fbbacked Yes29c250$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.051216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c217.79$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.894,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No48c191.36$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.146,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No72c159.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.191,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c151.45$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.864,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked Yes22c150$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11716833.9%57 W · 111 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c144.84$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes42c141.69$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes27c137.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9730332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c130.08$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.259,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No26c125.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.842,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c123.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.874,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No54c123.09$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.452,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed Yes67c122.2$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7915346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No12c121.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.112,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes25c119.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3c…4929backed No71c114.44$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.371020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c112$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.995,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes77c96.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7320662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes32c96.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes26c95.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4140438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes39c90$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes48c87.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.621,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d44…7023backed Yes25c84.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.575680.4%45 W · 11 L+17.3wins+0.31per pick50cpaid+102.1%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No54c81.88$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.21,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No39c81.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.622,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No56c81.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.442,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes45c77.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7820833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes22c75.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.077634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.443,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes26c72.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4815940.3%64 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes24c72.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed Yes28c72.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.128244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.438444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes21c70.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3346549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes51c69.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.092254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c65.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.592,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes34c61.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6687629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes28c56.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes55c56.48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes46c54.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3363538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes19c53.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.173,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x193f…d5aebacked Yes28c51.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+253.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes25c50.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0479040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3c…c6d8backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d16…447bbacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No32c49.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.072,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No53c48.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.752,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…6060backed No53c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-34.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4606…7f19backed No71c44.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2411664.7%75 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes34c43.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2913540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c43.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.981,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd988…6ce5backed Yes28c43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0611840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes58c41.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.392,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c41.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.431,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes37c40.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3620144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.443559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No74c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cb91backed No57c37.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.37170.4%50 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes27c37.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0416129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c36.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.554,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No54c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5764167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.532,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No34c34.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.754,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes32c32.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No78c31.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.683,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes63c27.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No47c27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.699153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes49c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1627247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes40c25.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.471,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes61c25.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8524569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb349…cd79backed Yes75c23.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.922568%17 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed No56c22.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6418033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No70c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157967.1%53 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa109…7e42backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611068.2%75 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.227852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.952,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No73c14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2227769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes79c13.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.932,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes77c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9410758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.