Tennis · resolved market
WTA Montreal – Mboko vs. Osaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a9c1f49b556884780a90a73bb24776a901e3b51f5ea5ccdf9581cba897a9344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbokoof Mboko, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Osaka | 2c | 3,591$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Mboko | 38c | 1,156$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.52 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Mboko | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Osaka | 53c | 913.69$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.77 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Osaka | 77c | 900.01$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.34 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Osaka | 62c | 736$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.32 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Mboko | 37c | 499.98$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Osaka | 61c | 420$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Mboko | 38c | 394.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.87 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Osaka | 58c | 334.76$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Mboko | 37c | 319.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Osaka | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Mboko | 21c | 220.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…3f3ebacked Osaka | 47c | 219.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Mboko | 48c | 213.4$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Osaka | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Osaka | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Osaka | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…dde4backed Mboko | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Osaka | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Osaka | 63c | 82.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8d…cd15backed Mboko | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Osaka | 57c | 36.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…a00ebacked Osaka | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.