NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ad3ddcfd2381585e0aced4876417d60852dee8383ac5babc765b576ea186bbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 53c | 84,823$44,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,020.13 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ea…bb01backed Over | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 17,771$8,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,393.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 17,695$8,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,438.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 52c | 10,960$5,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,210.98 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 47c | 6,270$2,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.9 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 47c | 4,894$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Over | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…43e8backed Over | 48c | 3,992$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 3,628$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.52 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 3,276$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.72 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 2,723$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.27 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Over | 47c | 2,553$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 2,083$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…59f1backed Over | 48c | 2,077$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 47c | 1,977$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 1,735$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.29 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 1,720$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.17 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 1,117$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 52c | 1,090$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.38 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed Under | 54c | 1,024$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.96 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Over | 48c | 565.92$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.64 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 52c | 406.97$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.22 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 309.22$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 47c | 211.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 102.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 84.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 60.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 51.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 28.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5this page
- Bucks vs. SpursSpurs won
- Bucks vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Bucks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.