NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8968804c7e129d15931f4c6e33bc33a40e451cc7d8094a7e614da790a233c280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 8,408$4,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,035.84 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 56c | 5,425$3,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.5 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 3,454$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 3,306$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.64 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 2,106$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.03 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 2,028$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.33 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 1,866$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.9 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 1,836$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.82 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e6…b13fbacked Under | 52c | 1,596$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…7a4dbacked Over | 48c | 1,574$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x010f…b12abacked Over | 48c | 1,566$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6873…a17ebacked Under | 52c | 1,566$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…d769backed Over | 48c | 1,534$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…4bf7backed Over | 48c | 1,533$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…7cbabacked Under | 52c | 1,533$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bf…1e64backed Under | 52c | 1,512$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 51c | 1,502$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.08 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 58c | 1,457$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.91 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Under | 54c | 1,410$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.41 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 611.04$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.97 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Under | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 56c | 500$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.22 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 468$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Over | 47c | 400$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 56c | 335.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 54c | 305.56$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 53c | 273.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 53c | 246.86$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Over | 44c | 178$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 146.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Over | 46c | 124.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 55c | 99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 95.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 59c | 82.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 54c | 81.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 43c | 75.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Under | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 54c | 55.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 46c | 41.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 41.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…25cabacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 43c | 38.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…7ea1backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Under | 57c | 36.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 243 | 63.8%155 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb8…7529backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 55c | 29.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 54c | 27.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Over | 47c | 25.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Over | 44c | 24.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…709abacked Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…0865backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 57c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5this page
- Bucks vs. SpursSpurs won
- Bucks vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Bucks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.