MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae0d04dc9fca89b9ede29bf971951d056d939c4812006782eeb6806552ae5b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 3,842$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.02 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 3,024$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.27 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 2,462$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.49 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 10c | 1,955$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.24 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,443$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.68 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,001$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.45 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 900$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.05 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 638.91$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.9 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 255$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 231.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 229.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 171$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 170.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 166$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 145.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 19c | 99.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 72.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 54.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 46.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 17.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles AngelsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.