MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e12e80aca37c5613d52fb6096eea99d56fdecf9aa094434df4d1c34f04eb851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed No | 53c | 37,777$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,777.46 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 46c | 19,336$8,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,858.03 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 51c | 7,036$3,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,553.43 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 45c | 3,534$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.49 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 48c | 1,625$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.12 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 48c | 990$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.27 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 48c | 840$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.2 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 687.06$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 50c | 489.22$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.61 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Yes | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed No | 79c | 230$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 24c | 162.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 51c | 109.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yes | 32c | 89.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…be94backed No | 49c | 20.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…a27cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angelsthis page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles AngelsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.