MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f39acd52c283c4e44a441a3368722e8a2610b1119275454897315430644494
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 7,417$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 5,117$3,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 4,304$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 75c | 2,823$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.22 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 2,688$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 29c | 2,026$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.97 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 22c | 1,584$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.48 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 930.24$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 621$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 559.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 54c | 547.04$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.85 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 63c | 392.62$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 33c | 296.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Over | 54c | 276.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 276.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 70c | 267.14$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 254.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 72c | 217.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 31c | 203.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 55c | 200.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Over | 55c | 187.08$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 41c | 120.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Over | 53c | 118.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 107$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Over | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 44c | 90.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 30c | 68.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…baf3backed Over | 41c | 56.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 78c | 38.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 76c | 35.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 76c | 33.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 54c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 42c | 25.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 42c | 25.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 71c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 71c | 25.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 71c | 16.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles AngelsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.