Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b2bfda37fb3f40f35f1b70ee38f011e77cbf6e56b4b61c20c504fe80216abd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 38c | 4,656$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.83 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 505.8$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 356.25$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 355.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 303.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 40c | 270$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 265.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 258.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 245.02$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…b14abacked Yes | 41c | 244.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 235$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 209.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 9c | 208.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 194.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 193$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 188.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 31c | 177.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 151.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 147.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 139.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 35c | 138.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 124.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 123.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 37c | 123$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 71c | 113.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 104.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 68c | 103.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 103.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 94.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 80.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 74.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 71.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 68.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 63.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 57.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 51.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 51.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 37c | 50.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…526bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 21c | 49.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 46.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 30c | 44.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 42.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 41.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 41.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…cdcfbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 37.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 65c | 32.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 29.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes | 37c | 29.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 64c | 29.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 37c | 27.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 25.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 54c | 25.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 64c | 24.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 63c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed No | 72c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 14.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 70c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 41°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 42°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.