Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2d7d711599c3d27377b4b429b2a2af3c04faeb2f5a8db963c83e53aae88a239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 648.03$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 384.11$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.83 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 381.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.37 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 355.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 340.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 293.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.34 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 66c | 274.28$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 207.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 201.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 193$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 188.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 180.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 176.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 9c | 167.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 160.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 156.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 154.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 148.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 148.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 132.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 131.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 71c | 130$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 129.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 24c | 125.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 17c | 122.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 16c | 112.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 15c | 108.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…0868backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 27c | 88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf731…91abbacked Yes | 23c | 87.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17da…dcd2backed No | 30c | 75.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…ea8ebacked Yes | 27c | 67.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 22c | 67.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 66.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 27c | 65.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 17c | 61.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 23c | 59.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 56.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 22c | 52.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 51.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 51.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 30c | 47.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 72c | 44.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 27c | 43.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 40.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 42c | 38.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 37.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 37.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 33.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 74c | 28.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 72c | 25.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 24.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 22.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…b14abacked No | 56c | 21.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 71c | 20.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…d8e3backed No | 74c | 18.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 17.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 41°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 42°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.