Asian League · resolved market
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b44507c570bdda4b34bba19554b405dbf5f4b70b72c2353eb10c9413ab7f0da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 16c | 3,861$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.73 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed Over | 56c | 3,000$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.7 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Over | 76c | 2,648$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…22d8backed Under | 12c | 2,190$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 2,120$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.93 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 76c | 1,179$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +151%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 62c | 960.53$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.15 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +8.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3baf…7d44backed Over | 59c | 835.68$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.85 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 61c | 821.48$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.28 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…fcb9backed Over | 60c | 667.62$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 25c | 572.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 34c | 437.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.91 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 424.48$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 35c | 401.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Over | 73c | 397$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Under | 40c | 301.77$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 59c | 299.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 65c | 253.58$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 65c | 253.17$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 26c | 183.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 180.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 39c | 179.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Over | 60c | 167.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…a8fbbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 34c | 115.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…3841backed Over | 66c | 104$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed Over | 66c | 102$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…8f52backed Over | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Over | 66c | 85.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed Over | 64c | 76.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Under | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Over | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Over | 63c | 63.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 61c | 48.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 61c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…674cbacked Over | 72c | 27.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…48c6backed Over | 66c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.