Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c82df076cb7dac3dfafab897ec05d40ef794e7f6a2e5b04ce84d4839cb65d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed PARIVISION | 61c | 12,848$7,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,058.33 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed MOUZ | 41c | 10,354$4,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,285.89 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked PARIVISION | 68c | 8,244$5,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.91 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 36c | 5,381$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.52 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 4,120$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.4 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed MOUZ | 36c | 3,518$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.83 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…e255backed PARIVISION | 63c | 3,163$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed MOUZ | 65c | 3,077$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…df70backed MOUZ | 37c | 2,222$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed PARIVISION | 63c | 1,810$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.52 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed MOUZ | 56c | 1,532$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.81 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed MOUZ | 8c | 1,495$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 39c | 1,118$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.22 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 43c | 1,077$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ | 38c | 1,059$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.46 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed MOUZ | 37c | 591.73$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked MOUZ | 19c | 549$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed MOUZ | 38c | 522.41$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…5f44backed MOUZ | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed PARIVISION | 63c | 490.38$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ | 36c | 488.88$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…210fbacked PARIVISION | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed MOUZ | 22c | 445.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…f95fbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 441.27$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.27 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…a33fbacked MOUZ | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed MOUZ | 39c | 412.23$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked PARIVISION | 64c | 381.2$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked MOUZ | 36c | 376.11$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ac…63bcbacked MOUZ | 54c | 369.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed PARIVISION | 41c | 365.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.01 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed MOUZ | 37c | 349.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed MOUZ | 37c | 333$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked PARIVISION | 62c | 315.51$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed PARIVISION | 58c | 299.38$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked MOUZ | 38c | 260.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…64f6backed MOUZ | 20c | 254.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed PARIVISION | 64c | 244.38$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed MOUZ | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION | 38c | 220.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.72 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed MOUZ | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed PARIVISION | 52c | 191.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked PARIVISION | 52c | 190.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed MOUZ | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed MOUZ | 54c | 184.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed PARIVISION | 43c | 162.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked MOUZ | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…14adbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed MOUZ | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…54a6backed MOUZ | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…07a6backed PARIVISION | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…b234backed MOUZ | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…33acbacked PARIVISION | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed MOUZ | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION | 46c | 95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed MOUZ | 36c | 82.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed PARIVISION | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed MOUZ | 33c | 78.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d4…b908backed PARIVISION | 64c | 49.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed PARIVISION | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked MOUZ | 59c | 42.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked MOUZ | 37c | 39.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed MOUZ | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked PARIVISION | 66c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3)PARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.