Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d5240ae079b15c8193a4cf8a61994ef0f66d210e418b0365d94e371196daad7

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: MOUZof PARIVISION, MOUZ
Resolved: Nov 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $69,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xac0d…b006backed MOUZ	42c	20,868$8,739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,129.03	106	61.3%65 W · 41 L	+10.4wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed PARIVISION	59c	13,656$8,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,055.13	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed PARIVISION	60c	7,503$4,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,510	90	55.6%50 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed MOUZ	39c	7,223$2,835 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,388.22	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ	45c	6,671$3,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,636.03	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked PARIVISION	60c	6,550$3,931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,930.83	158	52.5%83 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ	36c	3,957$1,413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,544.18	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed MOUZ	38c	3,081$1,162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,919.47	78	55.1%43 W · 35 L	+6.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION	57c	2,833$1,615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,615.02	610	57.9%353 W · 257 L	+2.8wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked PARIVISION	64c	2,800$1,792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,792	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-33%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ	55c	2,550$1,391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,158.78	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed PARIVISION	58c	2,005$1,163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,162.55	128	51.6%66 W · 62 L	-9.8wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed PARIVISION	29c	2,000$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.8	82	45.1%37 W · 45 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1946…e255backed PARIVISION	62c	1,808$1,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120.96	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed PARIVISION	61c	1,789$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.17	55	58.2%32 W · 23 L	+7.2wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed PARIVISION	65c	1,327$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$864.18	626	50.5%316 W · 310 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ	39c	1,216$474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$742.27	283	41%116 W · 167 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed MOUZ	47c	1,215$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.07	179	50.3%90 W · 89 L	+14.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ	42c	1,200$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$692.9	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked PARIVISION	58c	855.93$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	132	62.9%83 W · 49 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked PARIVISION	12c	757.35$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.11	102	36.3%37 W · 65 L	-10.7wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed PARIVISION	62c	624.06$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.16	805	44.6%359 W · 446 L	-25.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION	60c	610.63$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.53	858	51.3%440 W · 418 L	+30.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked PARIVISION	62c	608.37$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.19	175	46.9%82 W · 93 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ	53c	583.82$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.28	380	49.2%187 W · 193 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+168.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bae…14adbacked PARIVISION	52c	545$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.75	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked PARIVISION	59c	508.47$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed PARIVISION	59c	500$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ	65c	463.46$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.46	568	48.8%277 W · 291 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked MOUZ	42c	454.73$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.01	179	46.9%84 W · 95 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed PARIVISION	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	616	9.7%60 W · 556 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed PARIVISION	65c	331.08$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.25	464	51.5%239 W · 225 L	-12.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked PARIVISION	62c	300$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	166	65.7%109 W · 57 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed MOUZ	42c	300$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174	107	45.8%49 W · 58 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION	57c	275$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.75	592	50.5%299 W · 293 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed PARIVISION	55c	270.55$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	213	46.5%99 W · 114 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed PARIVISION	59c	254.24$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	315	45.4%143 W · 172 L	-19.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6aed…eb43backed PARIVISION	59c	238.98$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed MOUZ	34c	234.39$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.7	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+30%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed PARIVISION	63c	222.14$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.95	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e5…b8ffbacked PARIVISION	58c	200$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked PARIVISION	61c	199.99$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.99	73	45.2%33 W · 40 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaac2…df3abacked PARIVISION	59c	169.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	36.7%18 W · 31 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed PARIVISION	61c	164.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	346	67.9%235 W · 111 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed MOUZ	39c	156.41$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.41	140	39.3%55 W · 85 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked PARIVISION	47c	149.99$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked MOUZ	69c	145$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	353	70%247 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	69cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed PARIVISION	53c	132.79$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	147	51.7%76 W · 71 L	+11.1wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked MOUZ	38c	130$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.6	170	54.7%93 W · 77 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4a…4e5ebacked MOUZ	45c	125.63$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.62	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb10…bdd3backed MOUZ	41c	125.2$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.87	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89c…0220backed PARIVISION	24c	104.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…e0d7backed MOUZ	39c	102.56$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.56	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	581	52.5%305 W · 276 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4169…5d25backed PARIVISION	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe228…34b3backed PARIVISION	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed PARIVISION	63c	100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-7.3wins	-0.21per pick	57cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.95	807	42.6%344 W · 463 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0942…f42fbacked PARIVISION	15c	90$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77cf…4a81backed PARIVISION	39c	90$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6113…2443backed PARIVISION	59c	79.85$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.11	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdcca…64f6backed MOUZ	39c	67.36$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.09	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb719…dacbbacked MOUZ	40c	63$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9ad…79a8backed MOUZ	41c	61.22$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.22	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+3.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d7…95d4backed MOUZ	38c	60$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.43	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc1e…07d1backed PARIVISION	55c	60$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	64cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed PARIVISION	31c	59.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	98	52%51 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-15%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18dd…6bf2backed PARIVISION	24c	55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fde…f184backed PARIVISION	42c	50.57$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b55…2eaebacked MOUZ	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked PARIVISION	67c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.45	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed PARIVISION	42c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…33acbacked PARIVISION	58c	41.23$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked PARIVISION	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	236	40.7%96 W · 140 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed MOUZ	34c	37$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.42	160	50.6%81 W · 79 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked PARIVISION	66c	37$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	52cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed MOUZ	44c	34.35$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.35	236	50.4%119 W · 117 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8009…ca1bbacked MOUZ	40c	31.73$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.08	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf43f…54a6backed PARIVISION	63c	31.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	869	49%426 W · 443 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed PARIVISION	63c	23.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3)PARIVISION won
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event