MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Dodgers Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cd133c5b61c485f0554ee746b786b95e0a90702ec6fe1e93724bc7638b33035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Phillies, Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2165…f598backed Phillies | 2c | 14,538$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.28 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Phillies | 0c | 12,348$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Phillies | 8c | 11,150$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Phillies | 41c | 6,783$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.01 | 482 | 54.4%262 W · 220 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Dodgers | 57c | 6,573$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.92 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Phillies | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…ba8abacked Phillies | 24c | 1,113$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.38 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Phillies | 23c | 1,047$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Phillies | 27c | 835.64$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.09 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…303fbacked Phillies | 10c | 731.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.42per pick | 43cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Phillies | 44c | 659.82$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.32 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Phillies | 43c | 450$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Phillies | 44c | 410$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Phillies | 26c | 403.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Phillies | 49c | 360$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Phillies | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Phillies | 8c | 205.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed Phillies | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Phillies | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Dodgers | 57c | 175.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Dodgers | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked Dodgers | 59c | 105.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Dodgers | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Phillies | 36c | 90.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Phillies | 25c | 71.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…e33abacked Phillies | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Dodgers | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Phillies | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Dodgers | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +253%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1da7…2e56backed Phillies | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.