Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cf43fb729f87e86ced106be5b2d1bb18c0a705251cfdc027ab3da3c6147e8d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,949 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 32c | 1,115$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.35 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.3 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 55c | 902.43$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.46 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 1c | 853.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed No | 3c | 650$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…da39backed Yes | 29c | 615.23$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 3c | 566.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 519.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 26c | 496.28$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.38 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed No | 80c | 483.52$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 45c | 430.05$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.03 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 377.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 28c | 374.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.52 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 67c | 357.52$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.54 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 348.15$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 329.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.53 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 5c | 290.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 55c | 251.45$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.47 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 19c | 240$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 46c | 235.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 78c | 229.96$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 224.47$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 76c | 200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 199.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 45c | 198.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 22c | 193.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 186.33$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 69c | 170.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 167.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked No | 23c | 163.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 29c | 160.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…53f6backed No | 79c | 154.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 150.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 134$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 129.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 24c | 124.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 123.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 120.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 42c | 120.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…1a9ebacked Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 115.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 113.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 109.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c3…5034backed No | 75c | 104.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed No | 75c | 103.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…44e3backed Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 24c | 98.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 97.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 94.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 67c | 93.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 27c | 86.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 24c | 84.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 29c | 81.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 25c | 80.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9f53backed No | 65c | 78.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 47c | 75.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 67.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked No | 67c | 66.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 75c | 66.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 38c | 64.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 30c | 61.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…9279backed Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…30acbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 69c | 55.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 29c | 54.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…9f38backed No | 75c | 53.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked No | 78c | 49.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b5…1407backed No | 78c | 47.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…95c0backed No | 78c | 46.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…394dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aa26backed Yes | 75c | 45.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…db64backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked Yes | 72c | 39.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 62c | 39.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…e846backed Yes | 34c | 37.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.