Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6adb37e1f151b700b5e1866eeb20cf99c3f88f241148856a4f6b29ad490aa7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,656$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,721$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 52c | 1,168$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.74 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 50c | 989.22$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.03 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 649.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.57 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 30c | 542.38$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 504.21$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.11 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 9c | 499.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 43c | 482$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 44c | 429.58$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.04 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 421.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…36e6backed No | 52c | 388.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 371.19$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 328.13$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 35c | 319.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 311.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 310.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 49c | 303.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 282.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 42c | 264.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…5fc7backed Yes | 45c | 263.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 261.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 260.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 51c | 253.72$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 15c | 229.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 223.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…64f3backed Yes | 50c | 223.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 219.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 48c | 192.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8a…534fbacked No | 47c | 188$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 53c | 186.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 52c | 178.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…95dfbacked No | 49c | 166$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 45c | 165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf718…2c75backed Yes | 17c | 161.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 160.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 50c | 160.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 78c | 159.82$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 28c | 158$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 65c | 152.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 149.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165b…7544backed Yes | 30c | 142$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 138.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 24c | 136.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 49c | 135.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 52c | 119.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…b598backed Yes | 51c | 118.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 53c | 118$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…6deebacked Yes | 53c | 116.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 22c | 115.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 28c | 114.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 70c | 114.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 109.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 51c | 106.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 104.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 50c | 102.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…4752backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…95c0backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…0b2ebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…7b89backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…44e3backed Yes | 49c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 51c | 97.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…da39backed Yes | 54c | 92.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 21c | 91.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 51c | 87.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 41c | 86.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 84.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907b…e465backed Yes | 23c | 80.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc8…e90cbacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 79.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 77.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 14c | 73.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…c246backed Yes | 21c | 72.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 72c | 68.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…5f3bbacked Yes | 53c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 34c | 65.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 29c | 65.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 65.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…c1bbbacked No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e5…6fabbacked Yes | 31c | 63.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 63.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…ff54backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 46c | 58.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 51c | 56.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.