TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Edas Butvilasof James Duckworth, Edas Butvilas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3663…8950backed James Duckworth15c9,952$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.239243.4%170 W · 222 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed James Duckworth18c8,533$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4959138.5%35 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed James Duckworth18c6,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.9927431.8%87 W · 187 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed James Duckworth46c5,874$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.765651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Edas Butvilas64c4,390$2,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.074,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked James Duckworth13c3,323$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.281,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed James Duckworth41c3,265$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.561,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01fa…cea7backed James Duckworth14c3,197$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.4932735.5%116 W · 211 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Edas Butvilas58c2,681$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.0472452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Edas Butvilas61c2,643$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.441645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed James Duckworth10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25072132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked James Duckworth19c2,197$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42017744.1%78 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked James Duckworth15c2,101$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.767,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed James Duckworth40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9960053.8%323 W · 277 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked James Duckworth45c1,921$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.623,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Edas Butvilas60c1,601$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.983,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed James Duckworth40c1,380$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5521,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Edas Butvilas59c1,340$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.430847.7%147 W · 161 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Edas Butvilas56c1,256$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.5848552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed James Duckworth49c1,227$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed James Duckworth28c1,213$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.4214835.8%53 W · 95 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed James Duckworth39c1,200$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46820234.2%69 W · 133 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed James Duckworth42c1,185$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.51,02341.3%422 W · 601 L-24.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Edas Butvilas58c1,181$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.641,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c9…caf5backed James Duckworth47c1,115$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.135062%31 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked James Duckworth16c1,074$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3814933.6%50 W · 99 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed James Duckworth41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41014250.7%72 W · 70 L-14.6wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-21%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed James Duckworth48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Edas Butvilas60c974.97$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.9727739%108 W · 169 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Edas Butvilas51c848.17$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.7525245.2%114 W · 138 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed James Duckworth22c810.93$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.492,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed James Duckworth19c800.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15087337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cf…3e8cbacked James Duckworth13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Edas Butvilas76c748.7$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.274,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e1…0458backed James Duckworth17c732.6$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.955839.7%23 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3555…ba40backed Edas Butvilas54c725.27$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.926758.2%39 W · 28 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed James Duckworth42c714.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked James Duckworth42c642.86$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27047252.1%246 W · 226 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe521…9caebacked James Duckworth20c627.67$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6944527.2%121 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed James Duckworth21c614.02$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0780341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Edas Butvilas60c601.12$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.961,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed James Duckworth17c586.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048144.5%214 W · 267 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x803f…b6b3backed James Duckworth19c533.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked James Duckworth16c514.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2573350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed James Duckworth49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24545445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Edas Butvilas59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20554746.8%256 W · 291 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3623…99f2backed James Duckworth43c496.33$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.373158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed James Duckworth14c486.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.564,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed James Duckworth20c479.85$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9796035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked James Duckworth13c470.69$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1937421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf62d…2a10backed James Duckworth49c461.39$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.082842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Edas Butvilas69c375.57$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.69,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed James Duckworth37c342.07$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.588,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Edas Butvilas60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3323159.3%137 W · 94 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…3214backed James Duckworth15c328.53$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4938422.4%86 W · 298 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Edas Butvilas73c316.1$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.222,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked James Duckworth16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5058931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed James Duckworth15c299$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8515151%77 W · 74 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Edas Butvilas62c298.9$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5811158.6%65 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7820…5b79backed James Duckworth14c285.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020515.6%32 W · 173 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed James Duckworth5c280$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.728237.9%107 W · 175 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked James Duckworth17c276.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4730235.1%106 W · 196 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked James Duckworth38c275$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.514540.7%59 W · 86 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Edas Butvilas68c273.26$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.766352.4%33 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Edas Butvilas78c240.93$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.566,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95a3…cc1bbacked James Duckworth47c235.58$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.514245.8%65 W · 77 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Edas Butvilas74c233.56$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.812,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked James Duckworth45c233.33$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked James Duckworth16c232.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3853736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…db27backed Edas Butvilas53c227.78$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7813050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x491e…5ff4backed James Duckworth14c207.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Edas Butvilas79c202.74$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.067,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4d…3f0bbacked James Duckworth38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7817352%90 W · 83 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Edas Butvilas59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828653.5%46 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Edas Butvilas57c199$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.987,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e62…fd00backed James Duckworth15c193$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.620347.3%96 W · 107 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed Edas Butvilas52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3181256.2%456 W · 356 L-3.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Edas Butvilas58c188$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0399249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6794…0a8bbacked James Duckworth20c181.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3613016.9%22 W · 108 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked James Duckworth49c178.49$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8764537.2%240 W · 405 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Edas Butvilas59c167.8$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.864350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ec…1cc8backed James Duckworth17c167.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2932333.4%108 W · 215 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…c873backed James Duckworth18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked James Duckworth12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a65…7238backed James Duckworth46c163.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759056.7%51 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed James Duckworth21c157.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9734847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd11…67b1backed James Duckworth17c156.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d13…643cbacked James Duckworth43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.53046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed James Duckworth40c137.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed James Duckworth13c134.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Edas Butvilas80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2512836.7%47 W · 81 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Edas Butvilas76c124.38$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5585624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed James Duckworth16c119$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0467838.3%260 W · 418 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8499…950dbacked James Duckworth41c115.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.513043.1%56 W · 74 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bdd…8fd9backed Edas Butvilas60c108.33$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.335145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8cd…ba81backed James Duckworth14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1547431.9%151 W · 323 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked James Duckworth14c107$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.841,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Edas Butvilas57c106.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.497,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked James Duckworth41c103.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.375860.3%35 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Edas Butvilas60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.51,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.