TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Miyazaki: James Kent Trotter vs Dan Added

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
James Kent Trotterof James Kent Trotter, Dan Added
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$196,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,905 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked James Kent Trotter75c40,876$30,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,156.657,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Dan Added21c34,588$7,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,258.621346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Dan Added37c27,488$10,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,266.642,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked James Kent Trotter68c9,351$6,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,985.982,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d5…79a5backed James Kent Trotter38c7,615$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.262445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked James Kent Trotter55c5,385$2,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,417.0511,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068a…6fe7backed Dan Added37c4,334$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6006852.9%36 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked James Kent Trotter46c4,165$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.592,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Dan Added36c3,371$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.271,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Dan Added9c3,127$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.871216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed James Kent Trotter66c1,855$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.0924350.2%122 W · 121 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Dan Added21c1,756$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36030225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…dd32backed James Kent Trotter50c1,723$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.114055%22 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Dan Added60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Dan Added25c1,420$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.5930857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed James Kent Trotter67c1,397$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.491,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Dan Added25c1,366$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0426535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed James Kent Trotter60c1,337$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.839,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c8…44f7backed Dan Added47c1,272$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea48…62dcbacked Dan Added65c1,232$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.69947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Dan Added43c1,149$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.353,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Dan Added46c1,105$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.7530744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed James Kent Trotter63c1,105$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.888,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed James Kent Trotter50c1,062$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.821,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed James Kent Trotter40c965.48$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.994,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Dan Added52c944.61$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0619835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Dan Added43c939.25$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-61.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Dan Added42c877.78$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.614,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4820…c613backed Dan Added38c783.79$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010829.6%32 W · 76 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-39.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9512…a3d7backed James Kent Trotter39c769.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.233860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed James Kent Trotter56c763.71$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.341,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9f…b921backed James Kent Trotter66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed James Kent Trotter48c729.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.61,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed James Kent Trotter70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2937854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe878…e281backed Dan Added40c656.75$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.17650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked James Kent Trotter58c654.6$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.4561752.5%324 W · 293 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Dan Added40c625$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25061924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Dan Added11c600.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8612740.2%51 W · 76 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked James Kent Trotter55c585.9$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.6618250%91 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed James Kent Trotter56c558.51$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.071,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Dan Added48c506.75$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8255646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c24…e918backed James Kent Trotter61c498.89$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.97875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked James Kent Trotter60c456.41$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.382,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9da…f7d9backed Dan Added37c451.58$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed James Kent Trotter54c444.1$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.582,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed James Kent Trotter68c442$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.443246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c5…7fecbacked James Kent Trotter68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.181457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b0e…b4dbbacked Dan Added64c434.62$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2805236.5%19 W · 33 L-7.2wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb89a…d883backed Dan Added63c415.18$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed James Kent Trotter48c410.53$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.531,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed James Kent Trotter44c409.34$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.4141658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82d2…fab9backed Dan Added5c393.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dcf…87b8backed Dan Added49c379.74$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.726842.6%29 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed James Kent Trotter46c358.33$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0937153.9%200 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x319b…d4d5backed James Kent Trotter56c348$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.126144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Dan Added44c340.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed James Kent Trotter60c334.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.494070%28 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Dan Added51c306.71$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15741544.3%184 W · 231 L-1.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed James Kent Trotter66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10253752.3%281 W · 256 L+2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Dan Added61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832564%16 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed James Kent Trotter59c299.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0d…ca21backed Dan Added37c276.6$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.27948.1%38 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5f…6cecbacked Dan Added60c274.11$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16427749.8%138 W · 139 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked James Kent Trotter47c270.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.379263%58 W · 34 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed James Kent Trotter61c262.57$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.613148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed James Kent Trotter49c258.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6722755.1%125 W · 102 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2273…7e01backed James Kent Trotter49c257.39$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.415954.1%86 W · 73 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked James Kent Trotter38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15513958.3%81 W · 58 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…72ebbacked James Kent Trotter50c232.28$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.024465.9%29 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1fd…c880backed Dan Added38c227.24$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Dan Added48c212.9$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1917741.8%74 W · 103 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked James Kent Trotter48c212.39$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1557052.6%300 W · 270 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed James Kent Trotter66c206.06$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.061,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked James Kent Trotter75c205.51$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9270148.2%338 W · 363 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x746f…ad51backed Dan Added56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x720c…42febacked James Kent Trotter43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Dan Added35c198.46$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9914850%74 W · 74 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed James Kent Trotter48c190$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.81,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked James Kent Trotter53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6815252.6%80 W · 72 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0676…f0f0backed James Kent Trotter56c177.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5820552.7%108 W · 97 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Dan Added40c170$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6822953.3%122 W · 107 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed James Kent Trotter42c170$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.615748.4%76 W · 81 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb92f…58c4backed Dan Added60c166.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030653.3%163 W · 143 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Dan Added28c165.03$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.892330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf69b…a6ddbacked James Kent Trotter61c159.41$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1919250.5%97 W · 95 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x610b…36a3backed James Kent Trotter64c156.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.354744.4%243 W · 304 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13bb…a36cbacked Dan Added39c149.87$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5811857.6%68 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Dan Added41c142.04$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.361,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked James Kent Trotter49c141.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.455660.3%335 W · 221 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked James Kent Trotter62c140$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.21,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Dan Added52c134.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9928952.6%152 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe718…2153backed Dan Added10c131.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b7…148fbacked Dan Added64c127.42$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.481580%12 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Dan Added57c122.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7071165.1%463 W · 248 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Dan Added12c121$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5250644.9%227 W · 279 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bd…6cecbacked Dan Added39c115.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1923248.3%112 W · 120 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…cfffbacked Dan Added38c112.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9216447.6%78 W · 86 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d5…7c98backed Dan Added39c112.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.047542.7%32 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe47…a4b1backed Dan Added39c112.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.048951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed James Kent Trotter44c112$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7281255.3%449 W · 363 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.