WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 181.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d55e406e20c309a61fa05202d0842180c5a8576fc6cdb47815097a219107dc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 2,619$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.26 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 2,092$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.9 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 49c | 1,135$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,068$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.32 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 19c | 1,040$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 654$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.84 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 54c | 654$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.84 | 367 | 54%198 W · 169 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Under | 53c | 283.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 278.06$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 142.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 333 | 47.7%159 W · 174 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 50c | 95.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 47c | 82.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 389 | 40.9%159 W · 230 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 47c | 65.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 420 | 46.7%196 W · 224 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 54c | 26.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 143 | 50.3%72 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 73c | 25.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 391 | 50.4%197 W · 194 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 47c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 181.5this page
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto TempoLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 179.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 180.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 182.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 183.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-13.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)Toronto Tempo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.