WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a450124b0aa75bd88bdc892db2f2c3fdf4cb7616c35e42a1e784453447c794e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Tempoof Las Vegas Aces, Toronto Tempo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc638…e298backed Toronto Tempo | 49c | 2,035$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.55 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 1,686$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.69 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 1,391$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.09 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 1,172$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.67 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Toronto Tempo | 57c | 1,042$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.3 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Toronto Tempo | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Toronto Tempo | 53c | 709.76$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.97 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 602.17$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.97 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 561.96$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.16 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed Toronto Tempo | 78c | 374.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Toronto Tempo | 56c | 323.82$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Toronto Tempo | 76c | 319.39$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…5031backed Las Vegas Aces | 42c | 266.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Las Vegas Aces | 40c | 243.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…986abacked Toronto Tempo | 49c | 218.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Toronto Tempo | 58c | 191.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Tempo | 54c | 170.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90fe…b7b8backed Toronto Tempo | 60c | 141.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Toronto Tempo | 52c | 121.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 117.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 109.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Toronto Tempo | 54c | 92.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 85.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…4961backed Las Vegas Aces | 39c | 76.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Toronto Tempo | 53c | 74.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 68.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Toronto Tempo | 52c | 57.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 45.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…017dbacked Toronto Tempo | 56c | 43.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Las Vegas Aces | 32c | 42.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa250…b806backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 41.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Toronto Tempo | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Toronto Tempo | 50c | 28.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Toronto Tempo | 61c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 23.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Toronto Tempo | 62c | 23.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)this page
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto TempoLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 179.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 180.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 181.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 182.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 183.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-13.5)Toronto Tempo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.